Wednesday, April 09, 2008

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Some Quick Forex Information
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I have been using USD index and Eur/Gbp (or Gbp/Chf) as my guide dogs since late 70?s with reasonable accuracy for medium-term trend. Never lost money on medium-term bet relying on those guide dogs in fact. But that cross does not work when Pound is deliberately devalued.

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FX traders include governments, corporations and fund managers doing business with foreign countries, that need to exchange one currency for another, and speculators who seek to profit from price movements in the markets.

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Most of these can be quite complicated for those who are inexperienced using the Forex. Most professional Forex brokers understand these charts and have the ability to offer their clients well-informed advice about Forex trading.
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The highly liquid and volatile currency markets offer opportunities for speculators every day. Most speculators tend to focus on the so-called �majors,� which are the most actively traded currencies and include the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar.

All The Latest News From The Forex System World
European Morning Update 7th April 2008

Mon, 07 Apr 2008 01:32:41 -0400
Dollar recovers in early Asian trading

Releases from Australia:
Forecast Actual
March AiG Performance of Construction 53.9 (prior) 48.4
February Trade Balance AUD -2.5bn -3.29bn
February Building Approvals (MoM) +0.0% +0.1%
March ANZ Job Advertisements -2.1% (prior) - 0.7%

A 10 month low in new orders hit the AiG Performance of Construction Index to send it tumbling 5.5 points to 48.4 which indicates a contracting market. The AiG commented, “Interest rate hikes, the rise in the cost of funds and falling consumer sentiment are clearly taking their toll on the industry, and with new orders now at their lowest level in 10 months, we are likely to see further weakness ahead.”

In other releases job advertisements dropped for a 2nd month in a row with March declining by -0.7% over the month. The annual figures still look positive at 20.8% but that Australia has passed its peak will not be disputed following the series of interest rate hikes and the softness in overseas demand due to the global slowdown.

It is no surprise then that the trade deficit widened considerably, although it was much more than consensus forecast.


Releases from Japan:
Forecast Actual
February Leading Economic Index (P) 50.0% 50.0%
February Coincident Index (P) 44.4% 44.4%


The following economic releases are due today:

February
French Trade Balance EUR -3.7bn
German Industrial Production (MoM) - 0.4%
German Industrial Production (YoY) +5.3%
U.S. Consumer Credit USD 5.5bn

March
Swiss Unemployment Rate 2.6%

April
Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence +0.2


Friday didn’t quite have the outcome I had expected. From the basic break lower in the Dollar it does tend to suggest that the downside should come under further pressure but I can’t say that the break has developed in a particularly clean manner.

Never-the-less, with the break I shall stick cautiously with a Dollar bearish outlook but within that my impression was that we should see an initial pullback and that does seem to be occurring this morning. What we shall need to do is watch critical Dollar resistances and work our way from there. As I write we do seem to be very close to these resistance areas.

I should add that once the pullback is complete the resumption of the losses should be quite swift and any deviance from this would begin to suggest that the Dollar could resume its recent modest strength.


Note important support and resistance areas:

USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 103.57-86 1.5810-57 1.0169-17 2.0030-47
Res: 102.61-93 1.5700-40 1.0120-30 1.9910-55

Spt: 101.70-06 1.5620-41 1.0050-80 1.9813-40
Spt: 100.87-29 1.5510-48 0.9950-90 1.9757-88

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